Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE:FCX) is currently in the process of renewing its Grasberg contract. The contract has already been delayed by a couple of months. However, investors continue to assume that Freeport will indeed be successful. UBS analyst Andreas Bokkenheuser has listed five possible outcomes from the ongoing Grasberg negotiations but believes a positive result is the most likely among the listed.
Despite the positive results having a high probability the analyst has noted a lack of visibility regarding the course of negotiations. This has led the analyst to speculate another scenario which is labeled as “the black sky.” While, the black sky has a very minute possibility of actually occurring it stipulates that the negotiations will be unsuccessful. Furthermore, under this scenario, 90% of McMoRan’s stake in Grasberg is sold for an estimated value of $5.9 billion, which, is significantly lower than the fair price of about $16.1 billion. If such a thing were to happen, Freeport stock would come crashing down to around $6.50. The analyst reiterates that this scenario is highly unlikely to happen and was constructed mainly upon investor request to provide insight regarding the extent of risk.
Apart from Grasberg, Freeport has been doing rather well as demand for copper in the Chinese market has grown as of late. The analyst raised the price projections for copper from $2.04 to $2.10 per lb. for the year 2016. The analyst has reduced the long-term EBITDA estimates by 14% and has also cut price target on the stock to $11 which is based on the most likely positive Grasberg scenario.
UBS Securities has reaffirmed a Neutral rating and sees little upside potential in the next few quarters. The analyst ratings for Freeport are two Buy, two Outperform, 13 Hold, one Underperform and one Sell. The stock closed at a price of $9.87 after losing 3.14% yesterday.